Coronavirus: The Upcoming Waves of the West
Most countries in the West have chosen to reopen and “live with” the coronavirus
Some two months ago, Covid-19 stunned an unprepared West with an infectious disease that is so contagious and so violent that it overwhelmed countries’ health care systems, caused massive deaths, and paralyzed the economies. As of this week, more than 70% world’s coronavirus deaths have been from the Western countries.
This week, however, marks a different kind of milestone in the Western countries’ fight against the deadly virus — almost all of them are taking big steps in lifting lockdown measures which were implemented weeks ago to slow the rapid spread of Covid-19.
To be clear, none of the hard hit Western European countries or the United States have actually reached a state of “zero infection” — very few to no new cases. Noticeable countries in the West that have earned such distinction of honor are: New Zealand, Australia and Iceland. In East Asia, China, along with Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea, also achieved the same goal.
Like China, the first country to experience a severe regional outbreak in the world, the Western European countries and the US had the lockdowns for the similar length of time. But with more relaxed policies and and less than ideal compliance from the public, the Western countries were only able to slow down the infection but not drive it down to zero. Yes they have “flattened the curve.” In the case of France and Italy, the curve was actually bent down significantly and showed a clear downward trajectory. While the UK and the US have barely flattened the curve.
In France, the daily new coronavirus cases hover around 400, one of the lowest numbers in the West while about 700 new cases are still being reported every day in Italy. In the UK, that number is around 2,500. Finally, in the US, an astonishing 20,000 cases a day have been the norm for the past two weeks. The numbers in the UK and the US tell us that the virus is not nearly close to be under control.
Nevertheless, two months into the pandemic lockdowns, the battered economy pressed for a pent-up demand to get people back to work. Prolonged isolation threatened to cause anxiety and other mental health issues in part of the society. The pressure for the governments to lift the lockdowns had been mounting as quarantine fatigue set in and and unemployment caused billions.
So the last three weeks have seen countries across Europe ease their respective lockdowns. Last week, people in France were allowed to leave their homes for the first time in two months without a permission form. In Italy, Catholic churches held their first public masses after a 10-week lockdown. In the US, the official guideline of staying home from the federal government expired on May 1st and each state has since created its own criteria for opening the economy in phases. As of this week, every single state has been taking steps to reopen. Beaches are open again and people can even go out to eat in sit-down restaurants in many states.
By easing the restrictions on social distancing now, the Western countries have chosen to “live with” the virus, instead of trying to reach a state of “zero infection.” It is a willing compromise of public health risk for economic concerns.
Now the question is: what will happen next to the coronavirus trajectory for these countries?
Unlike China, or Australia, where only several new cases appear occasionally, these Western countries have to face the challenge of managing the existing active infections while trying to monitor the new cases after reopening in terms of testing, contact tracing and quarantine in place — the necessary steps to contain the virus. Not an easy task. The number of new cases could easily go up with the easing of restrictions. And if the infections go up quickly in a short period of time, the growth could become exponential again. That would translate into an upward coronavirus trajectory.
Fortunately, there are also opposing forces in preventing or lessening this upward trend — the newfound awareness and measures of social distancing that are taking place worldwide. Plexiglass shields were placed between the servers and the customers in a nail salon in Italy. Little “quarantine greenhouses” were set up in Amsterdam so that restaurant patrons can dine while social distancing. And mask wearing is mandatory for taking public transportation in France. Living in a pandemic also means that part of the population will choose to stay away from public places.
Would those social distancing measures and personal behavior modifications be just as effective as the lockdowns in halting the spread of virus? Probably not. In the US, wearing a mask in public is advised and even required in many states and places but so far this new custom has not been accepted by all of society. Practicality matters as well. How do you keep your mask on while dining in a restaurant or trying to enjoy a drink on an airplane inches away from your fellow passengers?
There is no doubt that social interactions and sharing public facilities means more chances for the virus to transmit, especially when every one of these countries still maintains a steady case of infections at the time of lifting lockdowns. A Mother’s Day service in northern California exposed 180 people to the coronavirus. In Germany, infection rates went up after the country started easing the restrictions.
Thus, the general coronavirus trajectory for Western countries would most likely to follow a pattern of waves. When the infections go down, there would be more easing of restrictions and relaxation of social distancing measures. When the infections go up, more social awareness, more social distancing measures, perhaps some school and office closures, or even a new lockdown. And on and on.
Until there is vaccine or preventative medicine.
The virus will not change its behavior. It transmits from one host to another every chance it gets. Only our social and personal behavior can change. The former largely depends on government policies to contain the virus and the latter involves newly acquired pandemic habits like wearing mask and keeping physical distance from each other.
The future is uncertain for the West as countries start to emerge from the lockdowns. The extremely contagious virus is still prevalent and a new reality is thrust upon people in which we must learn to live with the virus around us. Only time will tell if and when the next wave will come.
(Date source: Wikipedia and Worldometer)
